262
FXUS65 KLKN 212226
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MARKS A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
* SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 424 AND 437
* COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE CELLS, ESPECIALLY THOSE MOVING ACROSS WHITE PINE
COUNTY, ARE MORE WET THAN DRY PER RADAR ESTIMATION AND THE LATEST
WEB CAMS LOOKING OVER US HIGHWAYS 6, 50, AND 93. ADDITIONAL CELLS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES
AND THOSE ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH. THESE ARE ALL IN RESPONSE TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS MAINTAINING ITS POSITION ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO COME UP TO AT OR ABOVE 0.75 INCHES IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR THE LOWS TO BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED CONCERNING THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES
FOR TOMORROW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
IMPACTING NORTHWEST WASHINGTON STATE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE
0.75 INCHES. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 250 TO
700J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES BELOW 0C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN
EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF THESE CELLS. THERE IS A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN
DUE TO THE FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE VALUES AND WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY WATCH RECENT BURN SCARS FOR POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS. WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOK FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRY TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BUT IT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THE MOISTURE
OUT. EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE TO JUST NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLING WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND 90S
ON BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE OF
FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
THIS FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP A LID ON ANY ACTIVE WEATHER DURING
THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH THIS TIME
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW EITHER CONTINUED MONSOON FLOW OR A RETURN
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, S-SW10-15G20-25KT. VCTS PROBABILITIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 25% TO 40% ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS KEKO,
KELY, AND KENV WITH A PROBABILITY OF 10% TO 20% FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER KWMC, KBAM, AND KTPH. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS, COMBINED WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN, REDUCING CIG/VSBY TO MVFR AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD, ALLOWING
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A 30% TO 60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 424 AND 437 WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH COULD COMBINE
WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO FIRE ZONES,
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY WET STORMS WITH
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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