961
FXUS65 KLKN 221928
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1228 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS
* COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA,
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA LASTING
INTO MID-WEEK. TODAY IS THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA RANGING ABOVE 0.8 TO 1 INCH OF
MOISTURE, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY. PERIODS OF BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER RECENTLY BURNED AREAS THAT COULD PRODUCE DEBRIS
FLOW. HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS THE EXCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRY DUE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS THAT
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL IN THE AREA. TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH IT MORE CENTRALIZED OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA ALONG US-50 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE
WENDOVER AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45-60 MPH WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST BACK
TOWARDS ARIZONA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ENTERING INTO NEVADA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
THERE IS STILL SOME POCKETS OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS UP TO
0.7-0.85 INCHES SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE WEEK, CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD AS MONSOON
FLOW GETS CUT OFF WITH MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRALIZED OVER ARIZONA AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MOVES OVER NEVADA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S TODAY AND
INTO THE NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THANKS TO INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GET EVEN COOLER
DROPPING INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH SOME PATCHES OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY UP TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTS 25-30
MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45-60 MPH. END OF THE WEEK,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BREEZY THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL TIGHTEN WEATHER GRADIENTS ALONG WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF DRY, CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THANKS TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLER
FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES TO POP, THUNDER, AND WEATHER
GRIDS WERE MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA
WITH VCTS CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS REMAIN LOW WHICH
WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, HOWEVER IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THAT AN ISOLATED CELL MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS,
HOWEVER GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40-50 KTS. VFR DOMINANT CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS, HOWEVER
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE
SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER NEVADA. BY TOMORROW AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE
MONSOON FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT WEST TOWARDS ARIZONA. THERE WILL STILL BE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. GREATEST HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH, GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OVER WESTERN NEVADA,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
NOT AS DEEP WITH STABLE AIR HINDERING INSTABILITY POTENTIAL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND
THANKS TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLING DOWN INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STAY, HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN
TO ELEVATE IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH DRIER AIR.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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