921
FXUS65 KLKN 231913
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1213 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS
* COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: MONSOON ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS KEEPS BRINGING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO NEVADA. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-50%) ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. HUMBOLDT
COUNTY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET, BUT
AS STORM MOTIONS INCREASE TODAY, STORMS WILL BECOME A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. MONDAY, MODELS STILL SHOW A 20-50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BE MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
AND PARTS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. DUE TO STORM MOTIONS BEING A
LITTLE FAST, MUCH OF THE STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY,
ESPECIALLY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY STARTING AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MIX BY THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO DROP TO A 10-30%
CHANCE MORE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. GREATEST HAZARDS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IS GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45-55 MPH,
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE COOLING TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL HIT SORT OF A PLATEAU AS HIGHS STAY IN THE MID 90S,
BUT CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS HAS HELPED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, COOLING TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL
AMP UP WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST, WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS UP TO 10-15
MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT BACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, THUS CUTTING OFF
MOISTURE FLOW. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
MODELS TAKE SHAPE WITH DIFFERENT OUTCOMES OF WEATHER PATTERNS.
ECMWF IS SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL GIVE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS IS SHOWING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING TOWARDS THE
SILVER STATE, GIVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW STILL WITH DRY AIR BUT ALSO WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MIXED ON WHAT THE OUTCOME
WILL BE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY, BUT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DAILY
MONSOON ACTIVITY WITH A 20-50% CHANCE TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A 10-30% CHANCE FOR MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SILVER
STATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEXT WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS, GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. VCTS
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE KEEPS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS WITH -TSRA CONDITIONS, BUT WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE LOW EXCEPT FOR KENV WITH A GREATER THAN 30% CHANCE
A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH. 20-50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM
OUTFLOWS UP TO 45-55 MPH, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY OVER RECENTLY BURNED AREAS, AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND BE CUT OFF BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE SHIFTS MORE WEST TOWARDS ARIZONA.
THERE WILL STILL BE A 10-30% CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH,
GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page