963
FXUS65 KLKN 242019
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
119 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS
* COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THAT LAST
DAY FOR HIGHEST CHANCES (20-50%) FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AT A LOWER CHANCE (10-30%) AND MORE ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MOVES WEST
TOWARDS ARIZONA, WHICH WILL CUT OFF THE MONSOON MOISTURE FLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL START OFF AS DRY THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX
OF WET AND DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, WITH
HUMBOLDT COUNTY EXPECTING IT BY THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS IS A
LITTLE ELEVATED WHICH CAN HINDER SOME STORMS FROM FORMING, HOWEVER
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 0.8 AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GREATEST THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS ARE STILL GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45-55
MPH, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN FORMING, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING WEST, SHIFTING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DRIER AIR. WHAT HAS ALSO CHANGED WITH THE
MODELS IS THEY ARE NOW SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE US/MEX BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST SETTLING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL CAUSE A
LONGWAVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA THAT WILL BE DRY, BUT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE LOWER FORECAST HEIGHTS. FOR MONDAY,
THE MODELS START TO BECOME DIFFERENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT NOT BY
MUCH, WITH BOTH SHOWING A TROUGH FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
CRESTING INTO NEVADA, HOWEVER ECMWF IS SHOWING THE TROUGH TO BE
WEAK AND SHORT LIVED, WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE TROUGH TO BE
STRONGER WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE MOISTURE. EITHER OUTCOME WILL
STILL HAVE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT, YET IS UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK WITH A COOLING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND DROPPING INTO THE
80S OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS WITH DRIER
AIR WILL CAUSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AS MUCH OF THE MONSOON ACTIVITY HAS BYPASSED THE AREA,
LEAVING IT DRIER THAN OTHERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MORE MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES WEST, CUTTING OFF MONSOON
MOISTURE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER NEVADA NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN
CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAPID DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KTPH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 45-50 KTS
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING STORMS WITH THE CHANCE SOME STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS (EXCEPT FOR KTPH) WITH
POSSIBILITY SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. THIS MAY
CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON ACTIVITY RAMPING UP TODAY WITH THIS BEING THE LAST DAY FOR
20-50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER ZONE 437 TODAY AS STORM ACTIVITY WILL START OUT AS
MAINLY DRY, HOWEVER RED FLAG WAS NOT ISSUED AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A MORE MIX OF WET AND DRY BY THE EVENING.
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO
45-55 MPH, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
MONSOON ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
WITH LOWER CHANCES AT 10-30% AND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS ARIZONA,
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH, SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THURSDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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