908
FXUS65 KLKN 250949
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
* VEGETATION REMAINS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AT A LOWER
CHANCE (10-30%) AND MORE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM RETROGRADES WEST TOWARDS ARIZONA. THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEATHER PATTERN FORMING, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING A
POSITION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPTICK IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC CROSSES INTO CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR
MONDAY, THE MODELS START TO BECOME DIFFERENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT
NOT BY MUCH, WITH BOTH SHOWING A TROUGH FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND CRESTING INTO NEVADA, HOWEVER ECMWF IS SHOWING THE TROUGH TO
BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED, WHILE GFS IS SHOWING THE TROUGH TO BE
STRONGER WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE MOISTURE. EITHER OUTCOME WILL
STILL HAVE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT, YET IS UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND
DROPPING INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOONS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THESE
WINDS WITH DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY, LEAVING IT DRIER THAN OTHERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST
MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER ELEMENTS MODIFIED
INCLUDE POP, WX, WIND, WIND GUST AND SKY GRIDS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS KEKO,
KENV, AND KELY TERMINALS WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45KT.
KTPH, KBAM, AND KWMC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STORM FREE. WINDS
S-SW10-15G20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
RESIDUAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH A FIFTEEN TO THIRTY PERCENT PROBABILITY. IMPACTS INCLUDE
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORM WITH ERRATIC WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. DRIER AIR WORKING ITS
WAY EAST WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RAMP UP
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PROBABILITIES OF FORTY TO SIXTY
PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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