361
FXUS65 KLKN 251955
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1255 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING STORM CHANCES IN EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY
* VEGETATION REMAINS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE LATEST ROUND OF DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
TODAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS WEST. STARTING FRIDAY, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST WILL
COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TO BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL BEING DETERMINED BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST WOULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
EFFECTIVELY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WEAKER AND MORE SPARSE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF
IMPACTS. NO CHANGES TO NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
MOSTLY CALM DAY TODAY, WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS
AT KWMC/KBAM/KELY. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KELY AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER
10KT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FWZ 438/469/470/425. STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THE NATURE OF STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET WITH IMPACTS BEING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING, AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL ENHANCE AGGRESSIVE
FIRE BEHAVIOR. GENERAL MOTION OF STORMS WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. A VERY SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...99
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