320
FXUS65 KLKN 182024
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
124 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON AND
IDAHO BORDERS, AS WELL AS THE UTAH BORDER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
* GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON, AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING OVER THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER WITH A COOL FRONT OVER
WHITE PINE COUNTY, AS WELL AS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THE 20% TO 30%
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO UTAH LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE 40% TO 60% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST. GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK TO BE QUIET DAYS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS NEVADA.
TUESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SILVER
STATE, THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE FASTER TOO, BRINGING A 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE US 6 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, DEPARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRANSITS NEVADA WITH QUITE CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, AS A TRIO OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE SENSIBLE IMPACTS
TO NE NEVADA, ONE IS A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH, THE SECOND IS A LAND
FALLING PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WHOSE REMAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US. FINALLY THE LAST IS THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH MAY WANT TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH ALL THE
POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOWN IN THE
ENSEMBLES FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW SO WILL KEEP THE PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT NOTHING TO DRASTIC A AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE
INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE MID 70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A 10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE NYE AND SOUTHERN
WHITE PINE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE FOR THE UPPER PATTERN
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE W TO NW AT 10KT TO 20KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30KT ACROSS CENTRAL NV. UPPER TROUGH AND
COOL FRONT WILL BRING 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KELY AND KENV
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF N NV TODAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KENV, I-80 TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED WINDS ARE ONGOING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH AND CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEVADA. THESE WILL DIE OFF BY LATE
EVENING, LEAVING NON SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON BREEZES FOR THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
OREGON/IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH BORDERS AND ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ZONES 469 AND 470 ON SATURDAY. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A DRY AND
FAIR WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...94
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