117
FXUS65 KLKN 192030
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
* A WARMING TREND WILL BUMP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHEAST ARE
DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS
EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. UNDER NORTHWEST POST
FRONTAL FLOW FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO TREK
EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LPC WILL CROSS CA AND
ENTER SOUTHERN NV BY MONDAY ADVECTING VORTICITY AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NV MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXISTS WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN
AMONGST LONG TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. PW VALUES OF 0.5-0.7 INCHES
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ON THE STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EUREKA, WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS MORE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
NV ON TUESDAY THAN FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NV WHILE GFS HAS AMOUNTS
A LITTLE MORE ROBUST BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 INCHES.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RIDING THE FLOW OF ITS
PARENT TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. BRIEF
RIDGING WITH AN HPC TO THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN AZ WILL SET UP OVER
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE RIDING THE PARENT ULT TO THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A
QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS THE WARMING
TREND FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR GRID EDITS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ZONES 469 AND 470 HAS
DIED OUT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REFORM. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...94
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