820
FXUS65 KLKN 200905
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* FAIR WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK THOUGH BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THRU TODAY UNDER
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL ENTER
SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY ADVECTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS STILL NOTED WITHIN THE
MOST RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. PWATS OF 0.5-0.7 INCHES
WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FORECAST ARE UNDER THE
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND
ELKO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND
SPECIFICALLY WHITE PINE COUNTY. ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RIDING THE FLOW OF ITS
PARENT TROF CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. A TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MEANWHILE A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AND PROGRESS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME THOUGH
BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A
QUIET FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AGAIN
OPTED FOR A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACCURATE POP AND WEATHER FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS
THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
FAIR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A PACIFIC LOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THRU SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ZONES 426, 427, 425,
469, AND 470 WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALVES OF ZONES 424 AND 438 CAN ALSO EXPECT TO OBSERVE AT
LEAST ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WETTING RAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY IN AND NEAR ZONE 425.
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BECOME FAIR MID WEEK THOUGH BREEZES WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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