184
FXUS65 KLKN 210957
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
257 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
TODAY AND TOMORROW
* FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THOUGH BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND AND INTO SOCAL THIS MORNING, AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEVADA,
INCLUDING WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES, THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING RESPECTIVELY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY.
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER END ACCUMULATION SITUATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
PARTICULARLY THE SNAKE RANGE AND SCHELL CREEKS.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING PACIFIC TROF OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW. TROF PROGRESSES EAST
THRU THE PACNW FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SKIRTING NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CAUSE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BREEZY THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER WAVE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THRU TUESDAY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN REGARD TO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AGAIN OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE POP
AND WEATHER FORECAST THAN SUGGESTED BY NBM THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THIS MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. -SHRA AND TS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID DAY TODAY, WITH AFFECTS BEGINNING AT KTPH
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH KELY, KENV, AND KEKO ALSO
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE -SHRA, VCSH, TS, AND/OR VCTS. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO BEGIN AT KELY THIS EVENING AND KENV AND
KEKO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DUE TO REDUCTION IN VIS AND LOWERED
CIGS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY TS AND GUSTS UP TO
45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM
THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES THRU THE REGION. ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO EASTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ZONES 426, 427, 425,
469, AND 470, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF
ZONES 424 AND 438. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE WITHIN ZONE 425. WEATHER BECOMES FAIR
WEDNESDAY THOUGH WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS PEAK FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE 437 IN
RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC TROF PROGRESSING THRU THE PACNW FROM THE
WEST. GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GREATER THAN 15%, MITIGATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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