118
FXUS65 KLKN 220900
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY
* FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THOUGH BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AS WELL AS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS LOCATIONS EAST OF A
ELKO TO GRASS VALLEY, TO TONOPAH LINE WILL SEE A 30% TO 70%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 0.40” OF PRECIPITATION. WEST OF THIS
LINE WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, WITH JUST INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SILVER STATE BECOMES WEAK
AS A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, OVER NEVADA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW SETUP LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESET THE SW FLOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT MAY BE A THIRD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SOME WHAT ON TIMING AND POSITION, AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FASTER AND SHALLOWER PUSHING THE MAIN ENERGY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW AND INTO WYOMING BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER,
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH MOVING THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ONE MAIN ISSUE THAT
MODELS AGREE ON IS THAT THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL HAVE ALMOST NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
PICTURE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE LEAST. THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE PERIOD WITH W-SW WINDS
RANGING 5 MPH TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A QUICK WARM-UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE A COOLING TREND TAKES OVER DUE TO A SERIES OF
COOL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN DROPS
HIGHS BACK INTO THE .MIDDLE 70S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 30% TO 70% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN
NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH DRIER, YET COOLER AND LESS
WINDY PATTERN FOR NEVADA STARTING THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT SPEEDS OF
5KT TO 15KT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSITS CENTRAL NV, WHILE VCTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KTPH, KELY, KENV, AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS
KEKO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER KWMC AND KBAM LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE THE NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. TUESDAY WILL SEE A 30% TO 70% FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE ZONES 425, 426, 427, AND 470.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR LOCATIONS FORTUNATE TO SEE STORMS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO 0.40”, HOWEVER MOST WILL SEE BETWEEN A TRACE TO
0.15” OF RAIN. THIS FIRST TROUGH EXITS WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL
BECOME VERY SPARSE, EVEN AS THE UPPER PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER NEVADA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SET-UP FAVOR
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURE LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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