692
FXUS65 KLKN 230908
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THOUGH BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY, AS
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK AND BROAD SCALE SUBTLE TROUGHING OVER
NEVADA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH, A WEAK SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND SE OREGON. THIS
FLOW SETUP LOOKS TO KEEP NEVADA DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERLY JET JUST TO THE NORTH, MODELS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA HAS TIGHTENED OVER RECENT RUNS. SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
AND ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER OUT OF THE W-SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. MONDAY, MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NEVADA, MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE TROUGH EXITING EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RIDGING RETURNS BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE SILVER STATE. TEMPERATURE
WISE A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGHS
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A COOLING
TREND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH DRIER PATTERN LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A 10% TO 20% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESTORING QUIET AND DRY
PATTERN OVER NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA, INCLUDING ALL TERMINALS, WITH
W TO SW WINDS OF 5KT TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST
AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH GUST TO 30KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW TO ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY, AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE, EVEN AS
CONTINUED WEAK BROAD SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER NEVADA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF FIRE ZONES
OF 437, 438, 469 ,AND 470. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO STRONGER
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RUN OUT OF THE WEST TO SW
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, WHEREAS SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE MID
70S. MONDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NEVADA MAY BRING A
LOW 10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA,
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A TRACE TO
0.05” OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SELECT LOCATIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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