701
FXUS65 KLKN 240856
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
156 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
COOLING COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE QUIET, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH SUNDAY, AS MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK AND BROAD SCALE FLOW
OVER THE WEST, PUNCTUATED BY A SHALLOW TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NV,
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND BY WEAK RIDING OVER
NORTHERN NV AND ID. THIS FLOW SETUP LOOKS TO KEEP NEVADA DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERLY JET JUST TO THE
NORTH, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA TIGHTENING OVER RECENT RUNS. THIS WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF
THE W-SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. SUNDAY
THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES, SHIFTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WHITE
PINE COUNTY. MONDAY, MODELS SHOW THAT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEVADA, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE
CONTINUING TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE.
ANOTHER POINT OF CONTINUITY IS FOR LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
TROUGH EXITING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RIDGING
RETURNS BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK
TO THE SILVER STATE. TEMPERATURE WISE A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A COOLING TREND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH DRIER PATTERN LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A 10% TO 30% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NEVADA AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESTORING QUIET AND DRY
PATTERN OVER NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA, INCLUDING ALL TERMINALS, WITH
W TO SW WINDS OF 5KT TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST
AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH GUST TO 30KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF FIRE ZONES 437, 438, 469, AND 470 THROUGH SUNDAY, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOK TO REMAIN TIGHTER, LEADING TO STRONGER
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE ABOVE ZONES WILL RUN
OUT OF THE WEST TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
WHEREAS SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A COOLING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WARMING TREND GET UNDER WAY AS HIGHS
RETURN BACK TO THE MID 80S. MONDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH NEVADA MAY BRING A LOW 10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TRACE TO 0.05” OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SELECT LOCATIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page