848
FXUS65 KLKN 080913
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
213 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS (OF
35-45 MPH) ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY MONDAY MORNING.
* CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AS LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER NEVADA. CONCURRENTLY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST, REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA, GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
AND BRING A BIG INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60%) EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THOUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A BIG DIP AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY, AND DROPPING INTO THE 70S SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER DIP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, 60S IN CENTRAL NEVADA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO SEE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE 40S ON
FRIDAY, AND REACHING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S BY
SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN IN THE
FORECAST EACH NIGHT HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS SNOW LEVELS DROP SLOWLY
EACH DAY STAYING ABOVE 8000 FEET. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NEVADA LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MOVING INTO NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. CHANGES TO WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT
THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDTIONS AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FWZS 425 426
AND 427, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. WHILE
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WINDS INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER BEGINNING ON SATURDAY WITH RAINS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED COOLING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS ALL ZONES
EXCEPT 437. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING ALL OF ZONE
425 WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL. LIGHTER SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH 1 PM PST TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
NV424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH 9 AM PST TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
NV424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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