973
FXUS65 KLKN 090956
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON.
* STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
* LINGERING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHES NEVADA FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED W TO SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A NEAR REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER TROUGH ENERGY
DROPPING IN FROM THE PAC NW HELPS TO DRAW A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
COUNTY, TO AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER THE SANTA
ROSA MTS AND THE WINNEMUCCA AREA, UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE
SE CORNER OF THE COUNTY NEAR VALMY.
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS ELKO, LANDER, EUREKA AND N NYE COUNTY CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
A HALF INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN INCH OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NV, INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY, ALL OF WHITE PINE COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF NE NYE COUNTY WHERE VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD EASILY
RECEIVE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY
IN MANY AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN SCARS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CA, THEN EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NV AND INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRY BUT NOTICEABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE W-SW AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, THOUGH SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FWZS
438, 469 AND 470 WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY FOR ZONES 437, 438, 469 AND 470 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
FROM 1PM TO 10PM.
INCREASING WINDS AND SURFACE HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. MINIMUM RHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 25
TO 35% RANGE, HOWEVER DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 424, 437, 438, 469 AND 470. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS TO THE REGION. COOLER NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM PDT TO 10 PM PDT TODAY FOR FIRE ZONES
437, 438, 469, AND 470.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH 11 AM PDT TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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