460
FXUS65 KLKN 100953
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
229 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NEVADA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
* MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WHITE PINE, NORTHERN NYE AND PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SEE DECENT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A HALF TO OVER
AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
* LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SOUTHERLY WINDS INTENSIFY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY AS STORM SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE NW AND SW.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA
(INCLUDING NE NYE, WHITE PINE AND PORTIONS OF SE ELKO COUNTIES)
WHERE S-SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE A CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY S-SW WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THESE SAME
LOCATIONS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
GENERALLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ELKO COUNTY AND MOST OF WHITE
PINE COUNTY. THE STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM SOUTHERN
NV WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPANDING
WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE
WILL ALSO BE A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY,
MOST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 5AM SUNDAY AND 5AM MONDAY. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA, THEN
EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NV AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRY BUT NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS SUNDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EASTERN
NEVADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOME CLOUDY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE
MILE. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE KEKO, KENV AND KELY
TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NV BY
06Z SUNDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EXPANDING UP THROUGH
CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA ALL DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN CIGS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IVR LEVELS AT TIMES BETWEEN SUNDAY 06Z AND MONDAY 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE REGION,
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN ZONES
INCLUDING 469, 470 AND 425. MINIMUM RHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
FROM 15% TO 35% WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING
25 TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NV INCLUDING FWZ 425. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, NEAR-CRITICAL
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RHS AND ONGOING WILDFIRE CONCERNS, RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM TODAY FOR ZONES 424, 437,
438, 469 AND 470. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST ZONES, WITH
LIGHTEST RAIN IN NW NEVADA AND HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NEVADA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
DEEP MOISTURE FROM DECAYING HURRICANE RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD, CROSSING INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY MONDAY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATCH AREA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MAY
RESULT IN ROCK, MUD, AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND NEAR FORMER FIRE
BURNED AREAS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND POORLY DRAINED URBAN AREAS. SOME
OF THE FORMER FIRE LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE
FORMER WARD FIRE, KEARNY FIRE, OXLEY FIRE, SECRET PASS FIRE, STARR
VALLEY FIRE, JONES FIRE, AND EGBERTS FIRE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONES 424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
NVZ033-035-040-041.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NVZ033>035-039>041.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
HYDRO...86
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