791
FXUS65 KLKN 111022
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY, EASING MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING
TODAY BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 5 AM
MONDAY.
* A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WHITE PINE, NORTHERN
NYE, SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, AND ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ARE
PROJECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL NOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
* SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT, WITH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500
FEET IN ELEVATION POTENTIALLY RECEIVING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
BETWEEN 5 AM MONDAY AND 5 PM TUESDAY.
* MONDAY MORNING VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY SUCH
AS WILD HORSE AND JARBIDGE MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE AND AN
INCH OF SNOW.
* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND
6000 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY SUMMITS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE
AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS HELPING TO DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN
CA/NV. RAIN SHOWERS BEGAN IN SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AROUND
1AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NV PROJECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS CENTRAL NV BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT HOWEVER AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW BEGINS SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD NORTHERN NV SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS NV WILL BEGIN TO LOWER. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL
AS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 8500 FEET THROUGH 5 AM MONDAY. THE COOLER AIR FROM THE
APPROACH PAC NW LOW WILL HOWEVER BRING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY DOWN TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING AT WILD HORSE, MOUNTAIN
CITY, OWYHEE AND JARBIDGE. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER JARBIDGE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR MORE BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB LATER MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW COMING IN FROM THE PAC NW IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET. SUMMITS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ARE PROJECTED TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SUMMITS OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING THE TOWN OF EUREKA. SHOWERS
LINGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7500
FEET. SHOWERS END TUESDAY EVENING WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS CENTRAL NV TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE NEVADA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT KELY, KTPH AND KENV. BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL EXPAND WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE KEKO.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE, HEAVY AT TIMES, AT THESE FOUR TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KWMC AND KBAM MAY
SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW VFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NV. RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN FWZ 425 IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THE REST OF
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. THERE IS A
15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MAINLY ZONES 470, 425,
426 AND 427. WETTING RAINS AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM DECAYING HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES ITS
TREK NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MAY RESULT
IN ROCK, MUD, AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND NEAR FORMER FIRE BURNED
AREAS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND POORLY DRAINED URBAN AREAS. SOME OF THE
FORMER FIRE LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE FORMER
WARD FIRE, KEARNY FIRE, OXLEY FIRE, SECRET PASS FIRE, STARR VALLEY
FIRE, JONES FIRE, EGBERTS FIRE. OXLEY FIRE, ANTELOPE FIRE,
CALIFORNIA CREEK FIRE, AND MASTER FIRE. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF A
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 50, NORTHEAST TO PORTIONS OF ELKO
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT NVZ031-033>035-037>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ033-035-040-041.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
HYDRO...86/96
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