112
FXUS65 KLKN 111957
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1257 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 5 AM MONDAY.
* A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WHITE PINE, NORTHERN NYE,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, AND ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ARE
PROJECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL NOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND
5500 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY SUMMITS AND VALLEYS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: WHAT REMAINS OF HURRICANE RACHEL
CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE GREAT BASIN. ACCUMULATION SO FAR
HAS BEEN MAINLY LIMITED TO WHITE PINE COUNTY, EASTERN ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY, BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
WEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTED TOTALS SO FAR RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOUTHEASTERN ELKO TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WHITE PINE. BY MIDNIGHT,
CONTINUING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF
INCH IN WESTERN ELKO, NORTHWESTERN NYE, AND LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES, AND UP TO ANOTHER INCH FOR EASTERN ELKO, NORTHEASTERN
NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 5 AM PDT TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF
THIS CONTINUED RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW THAT ABSORBED RACHEL AND
ITS MOISTURE WILL SIT ATOP THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY,
KEEPING SHOWERS IN PLACE AND PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK, SOME OF WHICH
MAY FALL AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS, HOWEVER VALLEYS IN EASTERN NEVADA COULD WAKE UP
TO ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF SNOW ON TUESDAY. ANY VALLEY SNOW WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM THE LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FINAL DAY FOR PRECIPITATION,
WITH DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUING
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATION
TOTALS AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BEYOND TUESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL IMPACT ALL SITES EXCEPT KWMC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO FAR
THESE SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED IN VISIBILITY OF 5SM OR LESS AND
CEILINGS AS LOW AS FL015 AT TIMES. THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN BETWEEN 21-23Z, HOWEVER A SECOND WAVE WILL
FORM AROUND 03Z RESULTING IN CONTINUED MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF ZONES. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST IN ALL ZONES EXCEPT 437 THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HURRICANE RACHEL REMNANTS
CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOW, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN, POOR DRAINAGE, OR RECENT FIRE SCARS. RECENT FIRE SCARS
INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THE FORMER WARD FIRE, KEARNY
FIRE, OXLEY FIRE, SECRET PASS FIRE, STARR VALLEY FIRE, JONES FIRE,
EGBERTS FIRE, ANTELOPE FIRE, CALIFORNIA CREEK FIRE, AND MASTER
FIRE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CENTERED ON
WHITE PINE COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT NVZ031-033>035-037>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ033-035-040-041.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
HYDROLOGY...94
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