334
FXUS65 KLKN 122050
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
150 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ARE
PROJECTED TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET ACROSS THE REGION
* PASSES ARE EXPECTING UP TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW AND MAY SEE
SLICK ROADS, WHILE VALLEYS WILL SEE A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN FOR THE VALLEYS BY
THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHTFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S FOR TUESDAY, WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY FRIDAY AS A
TRANSIENT UPPER HIGH ENTERS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, DROPPING TO AROUND 20 TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. VULNERABLE PLANTS AND PLUMBING SHOULD BE PROTECTED
IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY BEEN WINTERIZED. THERE ARE SOME EARLY
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER COLD AND WET SYSTEM TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT
DETAILS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS FAR OUT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND IN SNOW POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS AFTER TUESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO NBM
OUTPUT.
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF DEGRADED
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT KEKO/KENV/KELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO
PERIODS OF GUSTS UP TO 25KT AT KTPH.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 437. ALL OTHER ZONES
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. CENTRAL
NEVADA HAS ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS TRANSITION
TO MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP, THEN EXIT FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
WHILE THE FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING, THE THREAT FOR RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS HASN’T ENTIRELY
ENDED QUITE YET. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN
AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY NVZ034.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
HYDRO...94
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