250
FXUS65 KLKN 131952
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1252 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY
* SIGNIFICANTLY COLD LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
* WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
* NEXT WINTER SYSTEM WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AS WE START NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING, AS A
DEEP TROUGH IS WORKING IT’S WAY OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED
US TO WAKE UP THIS MORNING TO SNOW CAPPED MOUNTAINS, AND FOR SOME,
EARLY SEASON SNOW CAPPED DRIVEWAYS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK EAST, GRADUAL CLEARING WILL APPEAR THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA,
BRINGING US BACK TO OUR SEASONABLY APPROPRIATE, DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL START OFF TODAY AROUND THE MID 40S TO 50S, BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NV TO LOWER 30S FURTHER SOUTH. THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE
ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT, AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MARKING THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON WE HAVE
SEEN THESE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS.
AS WE PROGRESS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP
OVER OUR AREA, WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL LOW SETTING UP ALONG THE
NV, CA, AND AZ BORDERS. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, BEFORE INCREASING TO THE MID 60S TO 70S
AS WE ENTER THE VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT OUR NEXT SET-UP, THOSE OF US WHO GREATLY ENJOY WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE VERY PLEASED AS A POLAR JET HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
WORKING IT’S WAY BACK INTO OUR AREA, REPLACING THE WEAK BLOCKING
LOW REGIME. THIS WILL CONTAIN A DEEP LOW BRINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN
TO THE 40S AND 50S, AND OUR LOWS INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW AS WE ARE
STILL A FULL WEEK AWAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL
CLEARING OF SKY COVER AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS STARTING TOMORROW.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DECREASING ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES, PLACEMENT, AND
TIMING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOWER CEILINGS FOR KEKO AND KENV
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN A FACTOR FOR
KELY/KTPH/KENV BEFORE GRADUALLY DYING DOWN AROUND 1-3Z. CLEARING
SKIES AND SUB-10KT WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL SITES UNTIL AT LEAST
17Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FALL WELL BELOW FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. NO PRECIPITATION
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON NVZ034.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...82
FIRE WEATHER...99
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