287
FXUS65 KLKN 171902
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1202 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS TIME. NOT TOO MUCH IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM AS A DRY PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING
TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION IS IN STORE FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. THE ESTIMATED THREE DAY FORECAST AMOUNTS
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ARE COMING IN AROUND ONE-HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE VALLEYS WITH ONE TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SYSTEM MAY BE EXITING EAST BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS AS NBM IS HANDLING THE FORECAST WELL. CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CHANCES OF A COLD FRONT
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STAGNANT
PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR HIGHER. AN EAST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY AND BE SITUATED OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH READINGS
AT OR ABOVE TWENTY PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 437 TO THIRTY-FIVE TO
FORTY-FIVE PERCENT OVER FIRE ZONES 425, 426, AND 427. VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH, AT OR
ABOVE THIRTY PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...86
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