904
FXUS65 KLKN 182256
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
356 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING NOTHING IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND CLEAR
SKIES.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
A DRY PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S.
ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING
TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION IS IN STORE FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. THE ESTIMATED THREE DAY FORECAST AMOUNTS
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ARE COMING IN AROUND ONE-HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE VALLEYS WITH ONE TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SYSTEM MAY BE EXITING EAST BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS AS NBM IS HANDLING THE FORECAST WELL. CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CHANCES OF A COLD FRONT
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FIRE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, THOUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE FIFTEEN PERCENT MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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