310
FXUS65 KLKN 192248
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
348 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL
AS ON WEDNESDAY.
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
* COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF
THEW FORECAST AREA THOUGH SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND WESTER-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SPINNING OUT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TOMORROW. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE PUSHING TO THE
NORTH. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. FORECAST SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO
PERHAPS 150J/KG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WOBBLE
ITS WAY TOWARDS WESTERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. FROM HERE, MODELS
WILL BRING IT ASHORE WEDNESDAY, OPENING AND CROSSING INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO BE A WARM STORM WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 7500 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND ARE
FAIRLY ROBUST AT A HALF-INCH UP TO AN INCH. HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
BUT COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM
FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24-HOUR PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TOMORROW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. LOCAL BLDU CONDITIONS MAY
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE IN SPOTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING AFTER
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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