946
FXUS65 KLKN 200908
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY.
* COOLER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO CIRCULATE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING AND MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BY THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY WITHIN
CENTRAL NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AS ACTIVITY MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS INDICATED. FORECAST SURFACE- BASED CAPE
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO PERHAPS 150J/KG RANGE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY DENOTED BY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICIES. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY, THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. FROM HERE, LATEST NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND CROSS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO BE A
WARM STORM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY REMAIN RELATIVELY ROBUST AT
AROUND A HALF- INCH WITH SOME VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS NEARING AN
INCH WITHIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS STILL IN THE
LOW 60S TO LOW 70S, BUT COOLING AROUND TEN DEGREES BY THURSDAY
WITH LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW MORE
DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MID TEENS TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES THRU THE WEEKEND,
RESIDING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POP AND
WEATHER FIELDS THRU THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
-SHRA AND/OR VCSH WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING TODAY AS ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT
SAID, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR CATEGORY. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TS IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL BEING AT KTPH, KELY, AND KENV. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE
A PROB30 GROUP FOR TS AT THE MENTIONED TERMINALS IN THE TAF AS TS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROADER AREA. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AS WELL, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NEVADA TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO ALL FWZS. LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
FORECAST, PRIMARILY WITHIN FWZS 426, 427, 425, 469, AND 470.
SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY EXITING NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD AND VALLEY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN CENTRAL NEVADA
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN ONE- HALF INCH
AND ONE INCH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ON THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND THRU THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND GENERALLY FAIR THIS
WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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