772
FXUS65 KLKN 210908
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THRU FRIDAY.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* MUCH COOLER FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND THRU
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST AND INTO CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA TODAY AND
THURSDAY, OPENING INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF. TROF AXIS LOOKS
TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO UTAH AS THE TROF SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES. THE
NORTHERN HALF LIFTING NORTH INTO MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND A
SOUTHERN PIECE RE- ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
DRIFT FROM ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROF PROGRESSES EAST INTO UTAH. AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH, MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, INCLUDING
WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY LOOKS TOP BE
SUPPORTED BY ADEQUATE CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH WILL
ALSO BE CO- LOCATED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND SNOW LEVELS WHICH HAD BEEN AROUND 10,000 FEET FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6,000 FEET JUST AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST
TO EAST. TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL WHICH HAD BEEN RESTRICTED
TO THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO REACH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
PASSES ON NV225 FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, ANY VALLEY SNOWFALL
WITHIN NORTHWEST ELKO COUNTY WILL BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD THAT
BEGAN TUESDAY AND WILL RUN THRU FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ROBUST
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES AND
0.75 INCHES. ONE INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE MOUNTAINS THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROF, WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK
MONDAY. RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT EDITS REQUIRED WITHIN POP AND WEATHER FIELDS VERSUS
NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF -SHRA AND/OR VCSH WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL
TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVE WEATHER
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU FRIDAY. THAT SAID, CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR CATEGORY THOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS DUE TO -SHRA ON TERMINAL MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR. TS
AND/OR VCTS MAY ALSO IMPACT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEVADA TERMINALS KTPH AND KELY WITH GUSTS 25KT
TO 30KT.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO ALL FWZS. THE NEXT
PUSH OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE MAIN BAND OF ENERGY PASSES
OVERHEAD, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FWZS 425, 438, 469,
AND 470 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS,
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY,
EVENTUALLY EXITING NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD THAT BEGAN TUESDAY AND
RUNS THRU FRIDAY WITH 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FORECAST ACROSS ALL FWZS, MOST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON
THURSDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY THOUGH A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ALSO PRESENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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