932
FXUS65 KLKN 220950
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
250 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
MAY BE SEVERE.
* MUCH COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER THRU MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WHILE
CONCURRENTLY WEAKENING, OPENING INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
TROF AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA BY
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL FORCING TO AID
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THRU MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING NORTHEAST NYE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST INTO UTAH. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM AROUND 10,000 FEET
TO AROUND 6,000 TO 7,000 FEET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO NEVADA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND A FEW LOCALES ALONG THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDERS MAY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. STORM
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION FOR THE FOUR
DAY PERIOD THAT BEGAN TUESDAY AND RUNS THRU FRIDAY IS STILL
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS LOOK TO REACH ONE INCH OR MORE, MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL
AS SNOW ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS INDICATED TO SPLIT INTO A CLOSED LOW AS
REINFORCING ENERGY ADVECTS SOUTH FROM THE PACNW ALONG THE UPSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROF. THE CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER SOCAL AND WESTERN
ARIZONA BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROF
ITSELF PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO RESIDE OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
COAST. ALL THAT TO SAY WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE PACNW AND CLIPS NORTHERN NEVADA,
THOUGH BASED ON THE CURRENT MODELED TRAJECTORY OF THIS WEAK
SYSTEM, WILL BE MAINTAINING DRY CONDTIONS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO
UPPER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL COLDER VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT THRU THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL AND MORE SEASONAL
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING TODAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY
THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATON
ALONG THE OR/ID BORDERS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT EDITS REQUIRED WITHIN POP AND WEATHER FIELDS TO
PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF FORECAST PRECIPITATON
THRU FRIDAY.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF SHRA AND/OR VCSH CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION THRU FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CATEGORY THOUGH MAY LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR
BRIEF PERIODS AS STRONGER SHOWERS MOVE ON TERMINAL. REDUCTIONS IN
VIS DUE TO SHRA ON TERMINAL MAY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR. TS
AND/OR VCTS MAY ALSO IMPACT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
DEFINED AS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR GREATER, AT KELY, KENV, AND KEKO AS PER THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS. GUSTS
AROUND 25KT TO 30KT ARE FORECAST. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY IN NORTHWEST NEVADA LATER TONIGHT AS THE AFORE
MENTIONED TROF PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST TODAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO ALL FWZS. AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SYSTEM AND MAIN BAND OF ENERGY PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY WITHIN FWZS 425, 469, AND 470. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEFINED AS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH
HAIL AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT UNDER ANY
SEVERE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY EXITING NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR DAY
PERIOD THAT BEGAN TUESDAY AND RUNS THRU FRIDAY WITH 0.25 INCHES TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FORECAST ACROSS ALL FWZS. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATON IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL TODAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS UNDER A GENERALLY
SOUTH WIND WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TODAY, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY LATER
TONIGHT, BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NEVADA AS THE AFORE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WIND SHIFT
CONTINUES THRU FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY THOUGH A MODEST
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ALSO PRESENT. WEATHER REMAINS FAIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATON ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER
ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP, WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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