915
FXUS65 KLKN 230910
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
NEVADA.
* MUCH COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS THRU NEVADA THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER,
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROF
AXIS WILL SPLIT THE TROF INTO TWO PIECES BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA,
WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES NORTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA.
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOWERS EXIT THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY BY
THE LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
TODAY. CONCURRENTLY, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS, WHICH HAD BEEN NEAR 9000 FEET OR HIGHER
FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET.
TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL, WHICH HAD BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS, TO REACH SOME OF THE PASS ROUTES AND FOOTHILLS.
AUSTIN SUMMIT, MOUNTAIN CITY, AND JARBIDGE LOOK MOST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JARBIDGE WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROF CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESSION EAST AND INTO UTAH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO NEVADA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS NOTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUITE, AND READINGS WIDESPREAD IN THE
20S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE TYPICAL COLDER VALLEYS RESIDING IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS.
WEATHER WILL BE FAIR BUT COOL THIS WEEKEND UNDER A MODEST WARMING
TREND THRU MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RESIDE
IN THE 50S THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
VALLEYS.
A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE
PACNW SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD
FRONT CLIPPING NORTHERN NEVADA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LATEST INDICATED TRAJECTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM, HAVE OPTED TO NOW INCLUDE LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND RAINFALL/LIQUID EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND MONDAY, AND THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE FAIR WITH A MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY SEASONAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THRU TODAY, WHILE DISSIPATING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND COMING TO AN END TONIGHT.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES MONDAY.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WEATHER THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.
A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS UTILIZED FOR POP AND WEATHER
PARAMETERS.
AVIATION
SHRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION. TS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN VFR LIMITS BUT ANY SHRA THAT
MOVE ON TERMINAL WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS AND PRODUCE MVFR TO EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS
DUE TO SHRA ON TERMINAL MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR OR
IFR AS WELL. SHRA WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE DAY AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST.
SHRA LOOK TO BE COMPLETELY EXITED FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT, COMING TO AN END AT KELY AROUND 04Z. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHIFT FROM A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHERLY BY
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY BUT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THEY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR
LESS FOR THE VALLEYS, THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL/LIQUID EQUIVALENT
SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY BREEZY, AND
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHERLY THRU TODAY, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST AND OUT OF NEVADA. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THOUGH A MODEST WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND FAIR WEATHER
ALSO PRESENT. A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATON ALONG THE
OR/ID BORDER IS PRESENT ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATON
THAT FALLS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 0.10
INCHES OR LESS. FAIR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page