674
FXUS65 KLKN 240928
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY VALLEY FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
* PATCHY FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
* LOW CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN NORTHERN NEVADA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 130 AM
PDT THIS MORNING DEPICTS AMPLE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AS WELL, PRIMARILY WITHIN VALLEYS WHERE CLOUD COVER
BREAKS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BECOME PRESENT BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, RESIDING
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. FOR TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING FOG WITHIN MOST OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S, WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER VALLEYS. FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THRU SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN A
MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THRU
MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATON
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT AND TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ON MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS THRU MID WEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATON RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY NIGHT.
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND WPC GUIDANCE UTILIZED FOR POP AND
WEATHER FIELDS.
AVIATION
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN EARNEST LATER THIS
MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY MID DAY TODAY. VCFG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KBAM EARLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR VCFG THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS AS FZFG IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE PACNW AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATON THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR LESS. ALSO ANTICIPATING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. FAIR
WEATHER RETURNS THRU MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATON
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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