458
FXUS63 KLMK 102336
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER.
* A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE
TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE OVER THE MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR SW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. WE ARE SEEING MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS NOTED BOTH AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN. MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN, WITH DIMINISHED
INTENSITY IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
HEAVIEST RATES CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN.
THE BROADER AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN IL
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA FEATURES SLIGHTLY LESS QPF FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KY, WHICH CONTINUES A RECENT TREND. EVEN LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS
ALSO BEEN SLOWER TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS CENTRAL KY, DUE TO WEAKER
FORCING AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AT PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE END RESULT
IN SNOW TOTALS MAY UNDERACHIEVE SOMEWHAT, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL KY (ESPECIALLY BLUEGRASS REGION).
THE BLUEGRASS REGION COULD STILL SEE 2-3", WITH LOCALLY 4" IN THE
SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS BY TOMORROW MORNING. 2-4" LOOKS POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KY, WHILE 3-5" IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND IN WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. FAR SOUTHERN
KY HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING 6", BUT CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCHES IS
LOW.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN MINOR TO MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
PARTICULAR, ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME QUITE SLICK AND
DANGEROUS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE. DUE TO THE CONCERN FOR IMPACT TO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH, WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN
PLACE.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT, WITH FLURRIES LINGERING IN THE
BLUEGRASS REGION INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ROADS COULD REMAIN
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY, CLOUDY, AND CHILLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
===== SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY =====
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING TO THE EAST THROUGH
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BUT DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OF THE CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLLOWS
BEHIND. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING,
THOUGH WE WILL CLIMB STEADILY INTO THE UPPER 30S BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NBM V4.2 GIVES STRONG PROBABILITIES FOR MAX TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ON SUNDAY, WITH APPROXIMATELY A 75% CHANCE OR GREATER FOR
TEMPS ABOVE 32F FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-64. THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40F
IS ABOUT 20% ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, SO THAT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THE TIME EITHER.
===== SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY =====
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING, THANKS TO
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK
IMPULSE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON
SUNDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MEAGER SATURATION TO THE DGZ. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS THE P-TYPE. BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. FORTUNATELY, THIS QUICK-HITTING WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK
AND LACKS ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE, SO WILL BE EXPECTING LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION.
PRECIP CHANCES END BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE QUICKLY PIVOTS
EAST, LEADING TO A DRY AND CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IN OUR WEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AS A CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
===== TUESDAY - LATE WEEK =====
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES START OUT TUESDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF THE WKY/BG PARKWAYS, WITH LOWER TEENS TO
THE SOUTH. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY AROUND 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES COULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS
ALL DAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD COME WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH STRONG SIGNALING FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS, AND POSSIBLY SOME
READINGS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. NBM GIVES THE 50% CHANCE OR GREATER FOR
TEMPS LESS THAN 5F NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, AND A 25% CHANCE FOR
TEMPS LESS THAN 0F. WITH TEMPS THIS COLD, WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR
ZERO OR EVEN NEGATIVE.
PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATING UPWARD INTO THE 30S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2025
AS THE SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP DURING PERIODS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. EXPECT IMPROVED
VISIBILITIES AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...KDW
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