315
FXUS63 KLMK 111747
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES
NEAR ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
UPPER TROF AXIS IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE
MOMENT, WITH THE LAST OF THE SNOW BEING SHUNTED INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE, MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
GIVEN THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED, WILL DROP
THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE STILL LIKELY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING, SO EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL DENT IN THE SNOW
COVER. MIGHT FINALLY SEE LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. LOOK FOR LOWS JUST
EITHER SIDE OF 20.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON SUNDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED HEIGHTS WHICH WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS WARMING TO NEAR 40. THIS WILL AIDE IN MINIMIZING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COMING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST MODELS ARE STARTING TO
BACK OFF ON THE IDEA OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF WE
DO MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION, IT WOULD LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH OUR HIGHS
ON MONDAY LIKELY OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNSET. SKIES WILL CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A STRONG REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH JUST A FEW TEENS MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE KY/TN BORDER. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID 20S TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO STRONG CAA INTO THE
AREA. COLDEST TEMPERATURE IN THE LONG TERM OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE MANY PLACES WILL APPROACH 0 AND A FEW PROTECTED SPOTS COULD
SEE SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/LOW 20S. STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DURING
THE DAY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WE DO REMAIN DRY THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH. WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT FORT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING UPWARDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY GOING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ON THURSDAY AND CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ON WHEN AND HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION. WHILE
BOTH WANT TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY, TIMING
REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2025
BKN MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z
SUNDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WSW
WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
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