243
FXUS63 KLMK 150536
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
* MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
EVENING IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
FAR NORTHERN KY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64, TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER
20S. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 10-13 MPH ONGOING.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS WITH LINGERING SNOWPACK COULD DROP BELOW
ZERO IF THE WINDS GO DOWN AS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS PLACES
LIKE BRANDENBURG AND CYNTHIANA SHOULD GO BELOW ZERO. CONFIDENCE IN
GOING WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO GO WITH A
HEADLINE, SO THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SHOULD SUFFICE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
A COLD FRONT IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF I-65 AS OF THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE, EVIDENT BY OUR SFC WINDS VEERING TO A WNW FLOW ON AREA SFC
PLOTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WAA AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED SFC TEMPS
REACHED THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WE'LL SEE
THE SFC WINDS RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS, AND CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
REINFORCING CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
LINGERING SNOWPACK, WILL SUPPORT EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MIN TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE GELID, WITH SINGLE DIGITS MOST
LIKELY NORTH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HREF DEPICTS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF TEMPS BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I-64. WE COULD SEE A FEW TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE ON REACHING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE. WILL OPT FOR A
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD TEMPERATURES INSTEAD.
FOR TOMORROW, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES GOING IN THE FORECAST. WITH
THE SNOWPACK AND ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES, ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 20S IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH, POSSIBLY NEAR FREEZING IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE NEAR
DAWN ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS
A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE'LL CATCH THE SW EDGE OF
THE DEEPEST (OVERALL MOISTURE PRETTY SHALLOW) MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES, AT
LEAST ACROSS OUR NE CWA. WE DO GET A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT, BUT HIGHS LIKELY WON'T GET OUT OF THE
30S IN MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN KY WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT TOUCHING
THE LOW 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO BRIEF UPPER RIDGING. WE'LL SEE A TREND
TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS BEGIN HERE WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE LOW AND
MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
FOR FRIDAY. LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LINGERING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOOSE PHASE BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM, AND A MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA.
COLD AIR CRASHES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE MOISTURE FIELD ON
SATURDAY, AND CHANGES P-TYPE OVER TO SNOW TO END THE EVENT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL LIQUID THROUGH THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
RANGE IN THE .25" TO .75" RANGE FOR THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE, AND IN
THE .1" TO 1" RANGE FOR THE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. CURRENTLY, THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR EACH RANGE ARE PROJECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, WITH
SOUTHERN IN PROJECTED TO SEE THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL RANGE.
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ON TOP OF THE GROUND IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK. TODAY'S CORE
SAMPLE YIELDED .9" OF LIQUID HERE IN LOUISVILLE, SO WE DO NEED TO
CONSIDER THIS EVENTUAL LIQUID AS A CONTRIBUTION TO RUNOFF BY LATE
WEEK. DOUBT IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY RIVER FLOODING, BUT
COULD CAUSE SOME RISES ON AREA RIVERS. IF QPF AMOUNTS GO UP FOR THIS
SYSTEM THEN SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT COULD ARISE FROM A PATTERN STANDPOINT WOULD BE A
RARE ADVECTION FOG THREAT FOR THE FRIDAY'ISH TIMEFRAME. MILDER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COLD/MELTING SNOWPACK COULD YIELD A
THREAT OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH MORE THAN JUST
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR NOW, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. ENJOY THE
MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY - SATURDAY BECAUSE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOLLOWS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BY SUNDAY DON'T GET
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST.
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR EARLY WEEK WITH TEMPS
FALLING. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS,
HIGHS ON MONDAY BARELY MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 20S. RIGHT NOW, MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD, KEEPING CIG/VIS VFR AND WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SDF WILL INITALIZE WITH N WINDS
JUST SHY OF 10 KT BUT SHOULD LAY DOWN BY 08-09Z.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME, THEN A
LIGHT SW WIND AND SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE EVENING AS A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...RAS
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