085
FXUS63 KLMK 190305
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1005 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-64, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A 2-3
COUNTY WIDE BAND FROM HARTFORD AND MORGANTOWN OVER TO LIBERTY
AND STANFORD.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A HALF INCH
UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE WINTER STORM. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW HAS ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND IS
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOST RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY, BRINGING AN UPPER JET WITH IT. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL CVA, AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ. ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND ENDING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY SEE
ABOUT AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WOULD SEE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. DUE TO THESE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
* IMPACTFUL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT *
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE
COLD WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. ACROSS KENTUCKY, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
20S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAY. WHILE SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAYS, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
EARLIER BAND OF SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED, BUT SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOWS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE I-64 ON
THE NORTH AND THE BG PARKWAYS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY, BUT WILL FALL AFTER SUNSET.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, OUR WELL ADVERTISED WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCUR, SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE'LL BE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POLEWARD SLOPING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY. THE CROSS SECTIONS HERE ALSO SHOW MODEST
AMOUNTS OF NEGATIVE EPV ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CSI. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS, ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THAT CAN BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME BANDING CHARACTERISTICS WILL LIKELY SHOW UP
ALLOWING FOR STREAKS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME
AREAS. THE THERMAL COLUMN IS QUITE COLD AND WILL SUPPORT SNOW
RATIOS OF ABOUT 16-17:1 EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASING OVER
20:1 LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S, BUT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO THE TEENS
RESULTING IN A HIGH SLR DRY SNOWFALL.
SNOW LOOKS TO BREAK OUT IN THE WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A DRY PERIOD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE DRY SLOT WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20-25
DEGREE RANGE.
AS FOR QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE SOME
SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. WE HAVE EXPANDED OUR
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF QPF WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THIS REASON, WE
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AND ADDED IN A ROW
OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING ON THE NORTH SIDE ALONG THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS RESULTS IN THE LOUISVILLE AND FRANKFORT AREAS
BEING ADDED TO THE WARNING.
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND INTO FAR NORTHERN KY WHERE A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND DOWN TO THE WK/BG PARKWAYS,
SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS
AND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN KY 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUAL MAXIMA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR WESTERN KY
BETWEEN PADUCAH AND HENDERSON AND THEN OVER IN THE JACKSON TO
PIKEVILLE AREA. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
LMK AREA, PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAY. HERE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7+ INCHES COULD
OCCUR.
AS FOR AS IMPACTS, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TONIGHT
DUE TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WITH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND
EXPECTED DRY SNOW, SOME BLOWING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THIS SNOW WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AND ALSO DISRUPT RECOVERY OPERATIONS IN
FLOODED AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
===== ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT =====
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PINWHEELING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
IN AND CENTRAL KY. WHILE THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP INTO
THE DGZ AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS
AROUND 20:1. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW MOUNTS OF A HALF
INCH TO SOME AREAS UP TO AN INCH OF VERY DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW. IT'S
POSSIBLE AN ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED FOR
THIS ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SNOW.
AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE REGION SWINGING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS, VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
WINDS REMAINING STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN
5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. GIVEN THE ONGOING FLOODING THAT MAY HAVE
DISPLACED PEOPLE FROM THEIR HOME, AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING POWER
OUTAGES, AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
===== DRIER & VERY COLD THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST
WILL DRY US OUT BUT ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON
THURSDAY IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGIT. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT FRIDAY ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 30S.
===== THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND =====
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE WE COULD SQUEAK OUT A FLAKE OR TWO
BUT CURRENT POPS ARE 10% OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 40S ON SUNDAY.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD SATURDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OUR DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IN AND CENTRAL OH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW, CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS PRECIPITATION TO
OUR NORTH AND AS RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S MONDAY MORNING AND MID/UPPER
30S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KEVV TO KSDF TO
KFFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WE LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AT KHNB/KSDF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND THEN IMPROVEMENT AT KRGA/KLEX IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
THIS BAND HAS PASSED. WE'LL SEE A PAUSE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
ANYWHERE. WINTER STORM WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 19/00Z AND EXITING OUR
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 19/15Z OR SO. LOOKING TO TAKE VSBYS DOWN INTO
THE IFR RANGE WITH THE SNOW OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CIGS LOOK TO STAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW END OF THE MVFR RANGE. THE WORST FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM ROUGHLY 19/03-14Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ031>033-037-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067-077-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ023>030-034>036-038>042-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-091-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ089-090.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRW
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