749
FXUS63 KLMK 191127
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
KEY MESSAGES
* ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE WITH DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING,
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE A HALF INCH UP
TO AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE WINTER STORM. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO HEAVY RAIN
OR SNOW EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING THE SNOW BANDS LOSE INTENSITY AS
THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP SHIELD NOW WORKING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY IN OUR
EAST AS WE HOLD ON TO LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, WE DO LOSE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE UP TO THE DGZ FOR
CONTINUED DENDRITE GROWTH, SO POPS WILL EXIT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AREA TRAFFIC WEBCAMS SHOW MOST ROADS SNOW COVERED, ESPECIALLY ON
SIDE ROADS, AND THE TYPICAL BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL CONTINUE, AND USE EXTRA CAUTION IF NEEDING TO
GET ON THE ROAD THIS MORNING.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NEGATIVE IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED AS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A
DRY SNOW IN PLACE, AND WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH, WE COULD SEE SOME
BLOWING SNOW, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
PRIMARY MOISTURE LAYER DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CORE. WE'LL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WE GET
A LARGE DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AREA-WIDE BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 15-22Z
TODAY. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE BRISK NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND
SNOWPACK, DID DROP TODAY'S MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY SPINNING FROM MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. AS THIS UPPER LOW PIVOTS, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS, AND WE'LL
GET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TO SWING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. WHILE WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER, THE COLUMN WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS SATURATED AS
WITH THE MORNING WAVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, WITH ENOUGH SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ TO OUTPUT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERALL RH VALUES AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SQUALL CONCERNS, BUT GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPS WE EXPECT TO SEE PRETTY HIGH SNOW RATIOS. DESPITE THE LIMITED
QPF, 20:1 RATIOS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH OF DRY
SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-
06Z TONIGHT. WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED, WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR
AWARENESS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS AFTER THE WINTER STORM DEPARTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WHEN DOING SO, CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH WILL REINFORCE OUR
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND CAA REGIME. WITH THE SNOWPACK ALREADY IN
PLACE, WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPS CRASH TONIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS WEST OF I-65. LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
EAST. WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING SOMEWHAT TURBULENT OVERNIGHT, THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND LIKELY INTO NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR WEST.
THESE VERY COLD TEMPS ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNING GIVEN THE ONGOING
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM THE FLOODS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY MORNING TO SUPPORT
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO
THE BLUEGRASS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND
20.
THAT HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH SEVERAL
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD SATURDAY, SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND SUNDAY, THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL KEEP US DRY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS,
WE'LL SEE A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY ALL LOCATIONS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, AND ON SUNDAY WE'RE EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
MONDAY A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
KEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF US. ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
CLIPPER WILL APPROACH ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK, AND COULD
BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. BY TUESDAY SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 60 DEGREES!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE EARLY MORNING MODERATE SNOW BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO LOSE
INTENSITY AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON IN THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, A SECOND WAVE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINDOW FOR IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THIS EVENT WILL BRING
JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, AND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH HNB
AND SDF BOTH RETURNING TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ031>033-
037-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
KYZ023>030-034>036-038>042-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-091-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
INZ089-090.
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...CJP
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