730
FXUS63 KLMK 192009
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE A HALF INCH UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE WINTER STORM. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF TOMORROW. A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION INTO THE DGZ BUT THE COLUMN KEEPS THE
SATURATION GENERALLY BELOW 700MB, SO NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT. AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, SNOW RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20:1. TOTAL QPF IS
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF
TO POSSIBLY UP TO 1 INCH OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WITH A STEADY WIND OF 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. NOT
ONLY COULD THIS BLOW SNOW AROUND CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY AND EVEN
SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS BUT IT WILL MAKE FOR SOME VERY COLD AND BITTER
WIND CHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WIND, THE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLAKES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 20S. WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH A 1040MB SFC HIGH OVER
MISSOURI TO KEEP US CLEAR AND CALM. TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES
COLDER THAN TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION.
THERMAL TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT, GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS FINALLY CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AFTER MONDAY, WITH A
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX IMPACT. FOR
NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE-WED, BUT WITH MILD TEMPS THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN OVER THE REGION WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY BKN MVFR CIGS BUT
THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE WE GET BRIEF BREAKS WHERE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WORKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD CAUSE IFR VIS WITH MVFR CIGS. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK AND THEN CLEARING TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067-077-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN
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