030
FXUS63 KLMK 200521
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1221 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE A HALF INCH UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE WINTER STORM. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SWATHS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY SHALLOW ACCORDING
TO THE MOST RECENT SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS, BUT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT IS FROM NOW
(8 PM) THROUGH 3-4 AM. A DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST PLACES,
WITH UP TO A FLUFFY INCH IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY
MAKE ANY PREVIOUS CLEAR ROADS SLICK ONCE AGAIN. THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD, WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES, WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD NIGHT, WITH A
BITTER 10 MPH BREEZE OUT OF THE NW. WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 0 TO -5 TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO
LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF TOMORROW. A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION INTO THE DGZ BUT THE COLUMN KEEPS THE
SATURATION GENERALLY BELOW 700MB, SO NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT. AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, SNOW RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20:1. TOTAL QPF IS
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF
TO POSSIBLY UP TO 1 INCH OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WITH A STEADY WIND OF 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. NOT
ONLY COULD THIS BLOW SNOW AROUND CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY AND EVEN
SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS BUT IT WILL MAKE FOR SOME VERY COLD AND BITTER
WIND CHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WIND, THE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLAKES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 20S. WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH A 1040MB SFC HIGH OVER
MISSOURI TO KEEP US CLEAR AND CALM. TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES
COLDER THAN TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION.
THERMAL TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT, GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS FINALLY CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AFTER MONDAY, WITH A
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX IMPACT. FOR
NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE-WED, BUT WITH MILD TEMPS THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
STRATIFORM SNOW WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL HOURS OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE, BUT SHOULD PREVAIL A FEW HUNDRED
FEET EITHER SIDE OF 2K'. THOUGH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRATOCU WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THANKS TO 925-850MB RH TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION. SKIES
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A VERY STRONG DOME OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...13
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