374
FXUS63 KLMK 202014
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WORK EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A
STRONG 1040MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -15 TO -10 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN A VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOUISVILLE WHERE IT COULD STAY IN THE LOW
TEENS DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AS
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
REGION. WHILE STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEARLY 20 DEGREES
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MUCH
NEEDED DRY SPELL IS ANTICIPATED WITH FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. SATURDAY
WILL BE COLD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START, BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SLOWLY START TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
A NOTABLE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ESE ACROSS CANADA WILL ENCOURAGE MORE
ROBUST WAA IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ON MONDAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY
TUESDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN. MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN -
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN KY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. HOWEVER, OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC NW WAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MORE
ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. THE RISK FOR HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE QPF DETAILS AT
THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
COME OUT THE NORTHWEST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT A
BROKEN STRATUS LAYER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK AND THE SNOW TO END AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 10-15KTS.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN
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