169
FXUS63 KLMK 210517
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOUISVILLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE WARM SPOT,
ONLY SEEING THE LOW TEENS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WORK EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A
STRONG 1040MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -15 TO -10 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN A VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOUISVILLE WHERE IT COULD STAY IN THE LOW
TEENS DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AS
500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
REGION. WHILE STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEARLY 20 DEGREES
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MUCH
NEEDED DRY SPELL IS ANTICIPATED WITH FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. SATURDAY
WILL BE COLD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START, BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SLOWLY START TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
A NOTABLE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ESE ACROSS CANADA WILL ENCOURAGE MORE
ROBUST WAA IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ON MONDAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY
TUESDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN. MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN -
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN KY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. HOWEVER, OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC NW WAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MORE
ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. THE RISK FOR HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE QPF DETAILS AT
THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THESE TAFS IS THE LARGE EXPANSE OF STRATUS
CURRENTLY DIVING CONFIDENTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
IMPACT LEX AND AVOID BWG. SDF IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK, BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO OPTIMISTIC AND JUST BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CU AFTER
SUNRISE. AT LEX WILL BRING IN A CEILING BUT KEEP IT JUST VFR, IN
LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES AT
LEX IN THIS FRIGID AIR MASS.
OTHERWISE, THE CENTER OF A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING
FROM MCI TO SDF TO NEAR DCA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...13
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