432
FXUS63 KLMK 250725
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEAK SFC LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WITH
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY FOR PRECIP TO START TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL FOCUS NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE LOST TO EVAPORATION.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN AXIS APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM
JASPER TO LOUISVILLE, AND NEAR A QUARTER INCH ACROSS FRANKFORT AND
LEXINGTON. IF ANYTHING THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS, AS IT'S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WE LOSE AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH TO VIRGA.
THIS PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD SCOOT THROUGH BY MIDDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES BETWEEN BOWLING GREEN AND NASHVILLE, PARALLELING THE KY/TN
BORDER. COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN ACTUAL PRECIP CHANCES, WITH THE
TRANSITION RUNNING FROM NEAR JASPER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS. WITH LESS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST,
LOOK FOR A SHARP TRANSITION IN AFTERNOON HIGHS, RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO AROUND 70 NEAR BOWLING
GREEN.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT,
BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT COMPLETELY IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME.
WILL HOLD ON TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH AROUND 20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER
PUTTING DOWN MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
===== WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT =====
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING PATTERN HOLDS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA, MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE I-75 AREA, BUT AN
OVERALL DRIER TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY
NICE AND SEASONAL DAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKYCOVER AND TEMPS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE EAST ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A CANDIDATE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS A RESULT, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
MOST.
===== THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT =====
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AS THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL ALSO FINALLY PIVOT EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY,
OPENING UP THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER, A PNW UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING ASHORE, AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIVE A SFC LOW TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS DUE TO WAA AND A
BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGE, WE'LL ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
FORCING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY, BUT AFTER
A VERY MILD START TO FRIDAY, WE'LL LIKELY HIT THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
===== SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST. A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BOTH AGREE ON
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW TRACK AND TIMING WILL BE DETAILS THAT GET
WORKED OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE CIPS ANALOG-BASED SEVERE PROB
GUIDANCE HAS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE NSSL ML
TOTAL SEVERE PROB GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A SIMILAR AREA. AS
OF NOW, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINAL SVR/TOR RISK, BUT IT'S
MUCH TOO SOON TO GET INTO FINER DETAILS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, IT'S
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST, BUT WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS AS A
CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT SDF
AND LEX FOR PART OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
THE STEADIEST PRECIP AT LEX. LIGHT, BUT SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIRECTION.
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST UPSTREAM WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE
EVEN MINOR IMPACTS GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. LOOK FOR
LIGHT PRECIP TO START REACHING THE GROUND AROUND 08Z AT SDF AND
CLOSER TO 10Z AT LEX. THIS IS PRIME TIME FOR MVFR VIS AT LEX, AND
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING.
PRECIP ENDS BY MIDDAY ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, BUT
WE'LL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BELOW 2000 FEET. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR AT SDF AND
LEX, WHEREAS BWG SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WIND DIRECTIONS ARE QUITE TRICKY.
WILL INITIALIZE WEST, BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO NE OR EVEN E JUST AHEAD OF
THE LOW, THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AFTER THE LOW'S PASSAGE. BWG HAS THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION, BUT WITH SPEEDS SOLIDLY
BELOW 10 KT THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...RAS
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