837
FXUS63 KLMK 251550
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1150 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
LIGHT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR NE CWA, AND LOOKING AT THE LEFT EXIT REGION
UPPER JET STRUCTURE, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE CLOUD CEILINGS ARE LOWER ACROSS OUR NE, STILL LOSING
SOME QPF TO LOW LEVEL EVAPORATION. AS A RESULT, FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SEE NO NEED TO
CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST WITH NOTABLE CHANCES (LIKELY).
PRETTY SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS THE SE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, AND
SEEING SUNNY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KY. HERE, TEMPS ARE WARMING NICELY AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR
MARK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CLOUD SHIELD, BUT MID LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT ON
SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL DEEP VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEAK SFC LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WITH
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY FOR PRECIP TO START TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL FOCUS NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE LOST TO EVAPORATION.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN AXIS APPROACHING TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM
JASPER TO LOUISVILLE, AND NEAR A QUARTER INCH ACROSS FRANKFORT AND
LEXINGTON. IF ANYTHING THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS, AS IT'S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WE LOSE AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH TO VIRGA.
THIS PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD SCOOT THROUGH BY MIDDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES BETWEEN BOWLING GREEN AND NASHVILLE, PARALLELING THE KY/TN
BORDER. COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN ACTUAL PRECIP CHANCES, WITH THE
TRANSITION RUNNING FROM NEAR JASPER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS. WITH LESS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST,
LOOK FOR A SHARP TRANSITION IN AFTERNOON HIGHS, RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO AROUND 70 NEAR BOWLING
GREEN.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT,
BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT COMPLETELY IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME.
WILL HOLD ON TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH AROUND 20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER
PUTTING DOWN MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
===== WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT =====
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING PATTERN HOLDS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA, MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE I-75 AREA, BUT AN
OVERALL DRIER TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY
NICE AND SEASONAL DAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKYCOVER AND TEMPS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE EAST ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A CANDIDATE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS A RESULT, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
MOST.
===== THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT =====
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AS THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL ALSO FINALLY PIVOT EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY,
OPENING UP THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER, A PNW UPPER LOW WILL BE COMING ASHORE, AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIVE A SFC LOW TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS DUE TO WAA AND A
BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGE, WE'LL ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
FORCING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY, BUT AFTER
A VERY MILD START TO FRIDAY, WE'LL LIKELY HIT THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
===== SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST. A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BOTH AGREE ON
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW TRACK AND TIMING WILL BE DETAILS THAT GET
WORKED OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE CIPS ANALOG-BASED SEVERE PROB
GUIDANCE HAS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE NSSL ML
TOTAL SEVERE PROB GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A SIMILAR AREA. AS
OF NOW, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINAL SVR/TOR RISK, BUT IT'S
MUCH TOO SOON TO GET INTO FINER DETAILS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, IT'S
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
PRECIP SHIELD HAS PIVOTED INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND IS
ONLY PRODUCING RAIN IN LEX OUT OF THE FIVE TERMINALS. SLOPPY SFC
WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE 1013MB SFC LOW NEAR CGI.
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP THROUGH MID-MORNING WILL BE AT LEX, BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GRAZE SDF OR HNB. BY MID-LATE MORNING,
ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS THE SFC LOW SLIPS
EASTWARD INTO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. WITH THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW,
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET.
LOWER CIGS ARE SHORT-LIVED AS WE SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SLOPPY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC LOW.
EXPECT DIRECTION TO SETTLE INTO E-NE THIS MORNING, BACKING TO NEARLY
DUE NORTH AROUND MIDDAY AND EVENTUALLY W-NW AFTER THE SFC LOW
PASSES. SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...RAS
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