143
FXUS63 KLMK 251844
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-64.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS SEVERAL DIFFERENT PARAMETERS. EXTENSIVE SKY COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THIS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH EVENING, AND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
ALSO NOTING A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR FAR NE CWA, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS A
SUNNY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS WE REMAIN IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN WITH PRECIP CHANCES NE,
AND CLEARER SKIES SW. DID WANT TO MENTION THAT TEMPS MAY FALL AROUND
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NE CWA, IF ANY VERY LIGHT
PRECIP FALLS DURING THAT TIME IT COULD BE A BRIEF MIX. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED, IF AT ALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...
TROUGHING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S, POTENTIALLY THE LOW 30S IN
THE BLUEGRASS.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN OUT AND
DEAMPLIFY. TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS WAVE, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING IN MOISTURE, WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AS A 50-55KT LLJ MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A TROUGH ORIGINATING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL TRAVEL EAST
AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST AND STRENGTHEN.
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-2.0 INCHES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PLENTY LIFT FROM TROUGHING, CVA, AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP LIFT THE MOISTURE. A STRONG 55-60KT LLJ WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN STRONG
SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE WITH
LITTLE CIN. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN LOW TRACK PLACEMENT, HOWEVER, THESE STORM INGREDIENTS AND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BRING ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS. SPC HAS THE REGION WITHIN A 15% RISK. IN THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST PERIODS, THESE TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SEEING A FEW LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING IN WITH THE MORE PROMINENT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME -SHRA AT
SDF/LEX/RGA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OVERALL LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN VERY LIGHT INTENSITY. LOOKING FOR STEADY NNE
WINDS, PERHAPS BACKING TO NNW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH A LIGHT COMPONENT OUT
OF THE W OR WNW. MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH STEADY
NW WINDS TAKING HOLD ONCE AGAIN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES, BUT RIGHT NOW COVERAGE IS ONLY 20% OR LESS
SO NO MENTION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BJS
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