574
FXUS63 KLMK 260503
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
* CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
AT MID-EVENING, SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
NOTED DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. STILL HAD A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWER 40S OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA
WITH LOW-MID 50S DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. WE'LL REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND DOWN TO ABOUT 40 IN SOUTHERN
KY. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD BE A
WINTRY MIX UP ACROSS OUR FAR NE, BUT WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS, NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS SEVERAL DIFFERENT PARAMETERS. EXTENSIVE SKY COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THIS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH EVENING, AND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
ALSO NOTING A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR FAR NE CWA, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS A
SUNNY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS WE REMAIN IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN WITH PRECIP CHANCES NE,
AND CLEARER SKIES SW. DID WANT TO MENTION THAT TEMPS MAY FALL AROUND
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NE CWA, IF ANY VERY LIGHT
PRECIP FALLS DURING THAT TIME IT COULD BE A BRIEF MIX. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED, IF AT ALL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...
TROUGHING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S, POTENTIALLY THE LOW 30S IN
THE BLUEGRASS.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN OUT AND
DEAMPLIFY. TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS WAVE, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING IN MOISTURE, WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AS A 50-55KT LLJ MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A TROUGH ORIGINATING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL TRAVEL EAST
AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST AND STRENGTHEN.
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-2.0 INCHES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PLENTY LIFT FROM TROUGHING, CVA, AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP LIFT THE MOISTURE. A STRONG 55-60KT LLJ WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN STRONG
SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE WITH
LITTLE CIN. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN LOW TRACK PLACEMENT, HOWEVER, THESE STORM INGREDIENTS AND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BRING ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS. SPC HAS THE REGION WITHIN A 15% RISK. IN THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST PERIODS, THESE TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE STAYING UP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE HAS GENERATED SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH COULD BUILD DOWN
AT TIMES INTO A HIGH-BASED STRATO-CU, BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR
CIG/VIS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MORNING.
LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO 10 KT FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE'LL REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH-BASED CU AROUND 6K FEET DURING
THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...RAS
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