878
FXUS63 KLMK 271601
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS. ALOFT, WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS BRINGING IN SOME WEAK VORT LOBES ALONG
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHICH IS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES
TO POPS, GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LOWERING DEW POINTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FOR NOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, BUT A BROAD ZONE OF
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS QUICKLY SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
REGION, NOW CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TODAY. ANY
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING WILL REMAIN SPOTTY, LIGHT AND LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES
BUMP UP THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY) AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WSW LLJ WINDS NOSE INTO THE REGION, ENHANCING
ASCENT AND MOISTURE DEPTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT IT WON'T RAIN EVERYWHERE AND QPF DURING
THE DAYTIME LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60/LOW 60S NORTH OF I-64 TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN
SOUTHERN KY. TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. A 35 KT LLJ STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MO/IL/IN. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KY. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. HREF LPMM QPF EVEN
HINTS AT LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IN
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY - SATURDAY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND. WE'LL START FRIDAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXITING THE REGION TO THE NORTH.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE ONGOING PAST SUNRISE IS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO BARDSTOWN TO BEREA. THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY
WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIMIT THAT 20% CHANCE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KICKS EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FEED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS FAR AS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH CHANCES INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LLJ
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY.
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING EASTWARD WILL PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM BY EARLY SUNDAY, SUPPORTING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE UPPER WAVE SHEARING OUT, IT WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND
ACTIVE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF
GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE AND WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER SYSTEM, THERE WON'T
BE AS MUCH DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION TO CUT OFF OUR SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE
HAIL. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.
MONDAY - MID NEXT WEEK...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST, BUT THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS TAKES ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPS, BUT THAT WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT COULD FAVOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR AHEAD
OF TIME. A COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE AREA. THIS
SCT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BWG SHRA CHANCES ARE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
THEN GO MAINLY DRY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SDF AND THEN LEX/RGA WILL SEE SHRA ACTIVITY SPREAD IN THIS
AFTERNOON.
BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE MID DECK THIS AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR TSRA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY FRI
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. 35-40 KT SW LLJ WILL ALSO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN LLWS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...EBW
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