481
FXUS63 KLMK 280102
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
902 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
* CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IS BISECTING THE REGION. SURFACE
TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN AREAS
LIKE THE BLUEGRASS AND FAR NORTHERN KY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPS WERE WILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH UPPER 60S OVER FAR WESTERN
KY. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION, ROUGHLY FROM OWENSBORO TO RICHMOND. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY STALLS OUT
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. OVERNIGHT, THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, COURTESY OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WE
CAN EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS POP UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN IN AND FAR NORTHERN KY (NORTH
OF I-64).
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AT THE MOMENT. HAVE JUST
MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE PROCESSING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
WARM FRONT, ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND WEAK VORT LOBES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
BROKEN SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A 40-45KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION
EVAPORATION, LIKE WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BROADEN OUT AND SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LLJ WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS LLJ WILL HELP TO PUMP IN MOISTURE AND RAISE DEW POINTS INTO THE
50S. WITH AMPLE MIXING FORECASTED TOMORROW, WILL EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS 30-35MPH OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND 25-
30MPH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER TEXAS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER. POPS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...
WE'LL START FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ANCHORED OFF THE SE CONUS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER CHANCES INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY,
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH OUR AREA, SLIGHTLY DISJOINTED
FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE SET TO ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND. LOOKING FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS STRETCH WHERE MOST PLACES
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY STABLE, SO DON'T PLAN TO HAVE ANY
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. WE'LL SEE PRETTY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JETTING, SO DO EXPECT SOME MODERATE RATES WILL BE NOTED OVER SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD DURING THIS STRETCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE, SATURDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S.
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOST DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD SOME SORT OF LULL ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN THE LEAD WAVE, AND THE APPROACHING MAIN SYSTEM FOR LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LULL WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN THE SETUP
FOR LATER IN THE EVENING, AS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD
WILL BE IMPORTANT. WE'LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SURFACE LOW WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PERHAPS
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HELPING TO BUILD INSTABILITY. A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TELLS AN INTERESTING TALE AS
IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE CAPPED AROUND 700 MB (+10C WARM NOSE BENEATH
A NOTABLE EML). THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY TO OUR ADVANTAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL KEEP A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IN CHECK. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE OUTSTANDING DURING THAT STRETCH, SO IF ANYTHING WAS
ABLE TO BUST THROUGH THE CAP, WATCH OUT. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
FAVORED. GOOD TO SEE THAT IN THE PRESENCE OF THAT CAP, CURRENT
MODELS AREN'T SHOWING ANY NOTABLE PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT AND A
10C WARM NOSE AT 700 MB IS PRETTY STRONG.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BETTER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. WE EXPECT TO STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND (>1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE), ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INVERSION BELOW THE EML KEEPING THINGS IN CHECK IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHAT HAD WORKED TO OUR ADVANTAGE EARLIER, WILL NOW PUT US AT A
DISADVANTAGE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY (AT LEAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY) TO MAINTAIN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR AREA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
KIND OF STORM MODE WE'LL END UP WITH BY THAT POINT, BUT IT SEEMS WE
MIGHT BE MORE CONGEALED INTO A LINE BY THEN. SHEAR PROFILE WOULD
SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL TENDENCIES WITH ANY STRONGER CELL AHEAD OF OR
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE, AND IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE A CONCERN LOOKING AT THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. WILL ALSO NOTE A UNIQUE VEER-BACK-
VEER SHEAR PROFILE BY THIS TIME, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SPLITTING STORM MODELS OF ANY MOVE ISOLATED/CELLULAR CONVECTION.
LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH TO YIELD 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
OVER 200 M2/S2. THAT BEING SAID, THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ISN'T PERFECT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL STABILITY/CIN FOR
STORMS TO OVERCOME. REGARDLESS, THINGS LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
ALSO SUPPORT POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
EITHER BY MESOVORTICE OR SUPERCELL STORM MODE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE, AND PROBABLY WILL RAMP UP NIGHT
TIME SAFETY MESSAGING AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THAT TIME
FRAME BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
DID ALSO WANT TO MENTION THAT WE DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5" THROUGH THIS EVENT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 2" POSSIBLE. WHILE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LARGELY HANDLE
THAT KIND OF RAINFALL, AND IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, THERE
COULD BE A FEW MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
GREEN RIVER BASIN FOR MINOR FLOOD AS WATER RELEASES FROM UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING, AND WON'T ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
RIVER LEVEL RECOVERY BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS.
MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST, BUT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TAKES ITS TIME
MOVING THROUGH. DO EXPECT TO BY DRYING OUT W TO E BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AND BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WHERE SOME FROST
COULD BECOME A CONCERN FOR THIS YOUNG GROWING SEASON. SIMILAR TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY, ALBEIT A TICK OR TWO MILDER. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...
LOWER CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DATA DIVERGES. WHAT
CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT A QUICK TREND TOWARD MILDER
TEMPS AND SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING TO OUR EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT SOME SORT
OF STORM SYSTEM (POSSIBLY STRONG) WILL IMPACT OUR REGION IN THE WED-
THUR TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
THIS ONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY CARRY A STRONG/SEVERE
STORM THREAT AS WELL. TIS' THE SEASON...
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND MAINLY AFFECT KHNB/KSDF/KLEX. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
RAMPING UP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER
28/06Z THROUGH 28/12Z. OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, BUT STRONGER SW WINDS ALOFT WITH THE LLJ. FOR
FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD. GOOD MIXING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....BJS
AVIATION.....MJ
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