420
FXUS63 KLMK 220541
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
141 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN OCCLUDING SFC LOW LOCATED OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE FRONT BISECTING OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT-TO-
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY PUSHED INTO
EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN, WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND BLUEGRASS REGIONS AT THIS TIME. ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR STRATOCU TO
SCATTER A BIT, WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AS THE FRONT TRUDGES EASTWARD. MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA, WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS.
TONIGHT...
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THE DECREASE
IN NEAR-SFC MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KY, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST. WILL ADVERTISE
PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
THIS MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
GIVEN WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. RECENT TRENDS HAVE PUSHED THE COLD FRONT A
BIT FARTHER INTO THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW, WHICH WILL HELP WITH
LIMITING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS LAKE CUMBERLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL, TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY
WEATHER-WISE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
WEDNESDAY...
OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR THE MIDDLE WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AND ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER AS A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THEM IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT WARMER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL START TO WORK IN OVER THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
ADVECTING IN GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY STILL HAS
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE CURRENT
TREND HAS BEEN FOR LOWER POPS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOW 80S.
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARK-LA-TEX,
A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
PWAT VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.50-1.75" AS A STRONG LLJ WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL KY/SOUTHERN IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND WHILE SOME COULD BE STRONG
THE THREAT OF SEVERE CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW FOR NOW. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. COLD FRONT IS PROG TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
TREND DRIER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS WE SEE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A STORM
SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WORKS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING, CAUSING LIGHT NW WINDS TO VEER NE. BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS DOWN TO 4
DEGREES AT BWG, AND THERE IS STILL A WEAK SIGNAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
THAT TERMINAL BETWEEN 09-13Z. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER AT SDF AND LEX,
MAKING FOG LESS LIKELY. THE WINDOW FOR FOG MAY CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY
EARLY TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE REST OF TUESDAY LOOKS VFR WITH A LIGHT ENE WIND AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
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