962
FXUS63 KLMK 220659
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
TODAY...
CONDITIONS ARE DRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS NOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
CAUSE LIGHT NW WINDS TO VEER NE.
BKN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED OVER SOUTHERN IN. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL KY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, WHERE RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
APPROACHING 100%. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AFTER DAYBREAK, BKN CIRRUS WILL THIN A BIT WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIFT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, PROVIDING A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND LOCALLY. IT LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WE'LL STILL HAVE A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH A REMNANT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS TN. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH
JUST SOME SCT CIRRUS AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...
IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE LATEST 00Z MODEL DATA FEATURES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOUTH-CENTRAL KY WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SCT
CUMULUS FIELD DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST TRENDS WETTER LATE IN THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BROAD, WEAK W/SW FLOW ALOFT. A MULTITUDE
OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN
IL/IN/OH BY 12Z FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS WE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT
DOES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER,
FORCING IS WEAK AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. FORCING STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT GIVEN
THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
AT LEAST A SMALL RAIN CHANCE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
FAIRLY WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY, GREAT LAKES,
AND OH VALLEY. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP E/SE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. WE'LL SEE A SURGE
IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
INCREASED ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A MOIST PROFILE WITH
A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE POINTS TO MORE OF A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAN A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG STORMS.
AT THIS TIME, BASIN-AVERAGE QPF IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE (LESS THAN 1
INCH), SO ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FROPA WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FROM NW TO SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE THROUGH THE 70S DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS WE SEE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A STORM
SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WORKS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING, CAUSING LIGHT NW WINDS TO VEER NE. BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS DOWN TO 4
DEGREES AT BWG, AND THERE IS STILL A WEAK SIGNAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
THAT TERMINAL BETWEEN 09-13Z. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER AT SDF AND LEX,
MAKING FOG LESS LIKELY. THE WINDOW FOR FOG MAY CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY
EARLY TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE REST OF TUESDAY LOOKS VFR WITH A LIGHT ENE WIND AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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