213
FXUS63 KLMK 230630
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
BESIDES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR
A QUIET NIGHT AS WINDS CALM. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO
MATE THE FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE US
WITH ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT BREEZES AND CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
50, WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
TOMORROW A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND MAY SPARK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ONCE WE PASS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. MAXT TOMORROW SHOULD BE
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE WARM FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAGGLERS INTO THE NIGHT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, RESULTING IN MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY
OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR NORTH, PLACING SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 5H VORT MAX WILL LEAD TO
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AND SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DRAG
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST PUMPS 1.25-1.50"
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWARD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
STILL NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS.
RENEWED RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY, AND ANY ISSUES FROM HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE LOCALIZED TO PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS AND
WOULD BE BRIEF.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAN DRIER, ESPECIALLY SUN-MON, AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND, AND THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY AS WE
GET INTO RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
SOME DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWER CHANCES MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS
ARE BRINGING A PLAINS COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOO QUICKLY. WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR DAY 7.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT THIN CIRRUS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. AN AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS FIELD
WILL LIKELY BUBBLE UP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD POP NEAR BWG. HOWEVER, SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIMITED, REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL SHRA/TSRA AT BWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...EBW
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