619
FXUS63 KLMK 230735
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. UP TO 1 INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE. RENEWED RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN (MID/UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE TN WITH MID/UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS IN CENTRAL KY).
ONLY SOME SCT CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW OF OUR
COOLEST SPOTS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS AFTERNOON,
THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER TN WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HREF DATA AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY. A VERY SUBTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE REST OF
SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY WILL ENJOY A WARM, DRY DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER PAST SUNSET, BUT OVERALL TONIGHT
LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL KY. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MILD NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
WE'LL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRETCHED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME STALLED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FLOWING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AND
RETURN POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, SFC DEW POINTS HITTING THE 60S SHOULD
ALLOW US TO REALIZE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
WEAK FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SHEAR BEING VIRTUALLY NON-
EXISTENT. SO WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY, THEY WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING.
LOW PRESSURE CONNECTING THE STALLED GREAT LAKES BOUNDARY TO A
TRAILING PLAINS COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PROGRESS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY, AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT JUST AHEAD OR ALONG
THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
GENERALLY 0.50-1.00". RENEWED RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY, AND ANY
ISSUES FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE LOCALIZED TO PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS AND WOULD BE BRIEF.
===== SATURDAY - SUNDAY =====
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES
TO BE A DRIER TREND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 70S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO COOL POST-FRONTAL
FLOW. WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE FROM THE NORTH, BUT SHOULD
SWING TO BE FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT DO EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY.
===== EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST, RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 80S, WITH TUESDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID-80S. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT THIN CIRRUS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. AN AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS FIELD
WILL LIKELY BUBBLE UP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD POP NEAR BWG. HOWEVER, SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIMITED, REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL SHRA/TSRA AT BWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...EBW
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