657
FXUS63 KLMK 250111
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
911 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED PONDING OR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND BY
NOW WE HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, BUT
INSTABILITY IS FADING FAST. LAST REMAINING CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR FORT KNOX WESTWARD ALMOST TO TELL CITY, BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
AFTER A BREAK OF A FEW HOURS, THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (UNTIL 6 AM LOCAL TIME)
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO CLEAN UP THE WORDING IN THE ZFP, BUT THE
TIMING IN THE HI-RES PRODUCTS WON'T CHANGE MUCH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OH RIVER ALLOWING FOR
WARM, MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP ON RADAR AS WE REACH OUR DIURNAL
MAXIMUM, WITH KY MESONET SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. AMPLE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
WITH SPC MESO SHOWING UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION ISN'T EXPECTED AS WE'RE DEVOID OF ANY STRONG
DYNAMICS AND LACK SUFFICIENT SHEAR. IN FACT, RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
0-6KM MEAN WIND OF 10KT OUT OF THE SW, SO EXPECT LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING CELLS. AS A RESULT, SOME
NUISANCE PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
AS WE LOSE OUR DIURNAL INSTABILITY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE POPS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A
LACK OF STRONG SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOOD ISSUES AS TOTAL QPF THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AMOUNTS TO ROUGHLY 0.50 TO JUST OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST EAST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY THE TIME THE SUN COMES
UP ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, AND
SOUNDING PROGS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
THESE FACTORS PLUS A VERY WET COLUMN INDICATE SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY, BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTION, IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A FEW
HYDRO ISSUES IN SPOTS THAT COLLECT WATER EASILY, BUT GENERAL
FLOODING OR A RETURN TO RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PULLS AWAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL THEN KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY, OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WE'LL HAVE OUR
COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH IS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN, WITH READINGS FALLING WELL INTO THE 40S. A PERSISTENT EAST
BREEZE WILL PREVENT PREVENT PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
BUT ENSEMBLE DATA ARE SHOWING ABOUT A 5-10% CHANCE OF THE NORTHERN
BLUEGRASS AND SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER OF CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVING INTO A
MOIST, UNSTABLE, STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
A BAND OF STORMS FROM OKLAHOMA TO OHIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE ESE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE THEY INITIATE, AND SHOULD BE IN A SLOWLY WEAKENING
STATE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DIURNALLY AND THE CONVECTION MOVES
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. STILL, DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH SEVERE STORMS A POSSIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IF THE
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS.
THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES AND EC EFI QPF ARE INDICATING SEASONABLE VALUES, SO
WHILE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM, RIGHT NOW A REPEAT OF THE EXTENDED AREAWIDE TORRENTIAL
RAINS WE SAW IN FEBRUARY AND EARLIER THIS MONTH IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SDF AND JUST NORTH OF LEX ARE
ALREADY WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. INITIALIZED ALL TERMINALS WITHOUT ANY LINGERING
PRECIP, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT SDF AND HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THE
OTHER SITES. EXPECT MAINLY A MID-LEVEL CIG FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, SAVE FOR A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED EASTERLY INITIALIZATION AT SDF.
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS,
EMBEDDED THUNDER, AND LOW CEILINGS. LOOK FOR MVFR VIS AND CIGS BELOW
2000 FEET BY LATE MORNING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
ESPECIALLY AT BWG AND HNB. BRIEF IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN.
LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIG/VIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FIRST
IMPULSE PASSES, BUT RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN IN
PLAY INTO THE SDF PLANNING PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS
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