923
FXUS63 KLMK 251734
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
134 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED PONDING OR MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TODAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A COLD IS FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA,
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS OF 12Z. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT,
COUPLED WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND CVA, WILL BE ENOUGH PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING RANGES
BETWEEN 1200-1500+ J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL, A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADO,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST TIMING IS AFTER 18Z AND DISSIPATING
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET (~2-3Z).
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS SINCE YESTERDAY, IT'S A MILD
MORNING TO KICK OFF TODAY. WAA REGIME HAS CONTINUED THANKS TO A SFC
HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST PROVIDING WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH RETURN
FLOW, AND WARM-SECTORING DUE TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN HAS KEPT FAVORABLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.2-1.3"
ALREADY THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY, AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A FEW DRY HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING, FORCING WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
AS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY SWINGS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE WAA REGIME, TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE MID-70S THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
AGAIN TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW TALL CAPE PROFILES, AND THE
HREF IS AGAIN SUGGESTING HIGHER PROBS FOR DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY, WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND A
40-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH AROUND 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SPC KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
RISK TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE SOUNDINGS HAVE A BIT MORE SHEAR TODAY,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORM CELLS BECOMING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE LATER.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY TOO, WHICH WILL
BE A GOOD THING TO HELP LIMIT FLOODING ISSUES. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MOST HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD
ONLY BE THE TYPICAL NUISANCE FLOODING OR PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS MAY ARISE IN ANY AREAS
THAT GET MULTIPLE STORMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATER TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS
LOST AND THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDES THROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO
SOME POPS INTO LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE OVERALL HIGHEST POPS FOR TODAY
WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z THIS MORNING AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SATURDAY - MONDAY NIGHT...
EVERYONE SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SE CWA
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING ALONG THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND A DRY REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER UNDER A STEADY N WIND AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LINGERING
SKY COVER. THIS SHOULD MOST MAX TS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH WILL EXTEND ENOUGH INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD TO KEEP US
DRY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL NOTE THAT SOME MODELS STILL SPIT OUT SOME
VERY LIGHT QPF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LOOK AT SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THIS BEING SOME SHALLOW VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE CLOUD BASE
AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL ONLY MENTION POPS LESS THAN 15% FOR NOW.
TEMPS DO TREND QUICKLY WARMER, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AS RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER RIDING TAKE HOLD. LOW TO MID 80S BY THEN,
WITH SUNDAY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST. SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COOLEST EASTERN
VALLEYS, AND THAT MAKES SENSE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
WE LOOK TO BE HEADED TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH TWO WAVES OF PARTICULAR INTEREST DURING THAT STRETCH. THE FIRST
WILL BE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG A COLD FRONT (LIKELY SEVERE THERE), AND THEN
WORK INTO OUR AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
THANKS TO AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STORMS ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT,
HOWEVER LATER ARRIVAL WILL DIMINISH THAT THREAT SOMEWHAT THANKS TO
THE DIURNAL MIN. RIGHT NOW, LIKE SPC'S PLACEMENT OF THE 15% PROBS
OVER OUR NW CWA, WHERE SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS
REASONABLE LATER TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW AND STALLS OUT IN THE REGION, IF NOT OVER OUR REGION. THE
END RESULT WILL BE CONTINUES SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY,
OF WHICH SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING COULD OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW FLOOD CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS SETUP, BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET CONCERNED SINCE MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
LATE TUESDAY CONVECTION.
THE FINAL WAVE COMES ON THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE OVER OUR NEAR
OUR REGION, WHICH WILL HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK SLOWLY
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER INSTANCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR PERHAPS MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH FOR THAT TIME FRAME, WITH SOME
COMPLEXITIES AHEAD OF IT HURTING CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME INSTANCES OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS SETTLE BACK IN FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE, BOTH CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...SRW
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