186
FXUS63 KLMK 260702
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE AREA.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH LATER
THURSDAY STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD CLUSTER NOW NEAR BARDSTOWN AND OTHERS NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN KY BORDER. DRIER NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THOSE RAINS SOUTHEASTWARD.
SEEING UPSTREAM CLOUDS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND MOVING OUR WAY. THIS
AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WE SHOULD GET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR
MOST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND CALMER WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE APRIL, LOWER 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHEAST IN, BUT
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE BWG AREA WILL KEEP READINGS UP AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SUNDAY - MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER
OUR AREA BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND, AND TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD
STRETCH. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF DOWN THERE MONDAY PM SO WILL KEEP A 20% CHANCE GOING
DOWN THERE. WON'T MENTION ANY THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AROUND 5K FEET OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT H7.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY, MONDAY BRINGS A
NOTABLE WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE MONDAY DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS WE START OUT WITH A CHILLY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S FOR MOST.
MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEK, THINGS LOOK
TO GET MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO SUPPRESS THANKS TO A POTENT EASTERN CANADA
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
THE POINT WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INTO FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO TUESDAY, WE'LL WATCH UPSTREAM AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
(LIKELY SOME SEVERE) WILL INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE EASTERN CANADA SURFACE LOW. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SINK
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING (DEPENDING ON
TIMING). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY (ML CAPE 1500-
2000 J/KG) IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-40 KTS 0-8
KM). THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT,
BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OVER OUR AREA FOR THE LATER TUESDAY SEVERE THREAT. SPC
DAY 4 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD, WITH THE BIGGEST FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA.
MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS ON TUESDAY PM WILL DRIVE THE OUTCOME FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW SHOULD
BASICALLY REDEFINE THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WHERE THIS
ENDS UP WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DATA ON
EXACTLY WHERE THIS ENDS UP, BUT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE PRETTY MUCH
SUGGESTS SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA WITH A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY. THIS
COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS AS STORMS COULD TRAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT ORIENTS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE
BRIEFLY DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE GET SOME PHASING BETWEEN AN
EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, AND A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ROUGHLY FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND THEN UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL OF A PHASE TAKES PLACE, BUT
REGARDLESS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING AS IT WILL
LIKELY TRACK SOMEWHERE THROUGH OR NEAR THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY. THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY, AND THIS
SHOULD ESTABLISH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER OUR CWA FOR
LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK, THE TRIPLE POINT WILL ALSO BE IN THE VICINITY. BOTTOM LINE IS
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT INTO PLAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A MORE NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT
WITH THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT,
BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED GIVEN HOW MUCH NEEDS TO
HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. SOMETHING TO WATCH AND MONITOR
FOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS HOUR, WITH WINDS
COMING AROUND TO WEST AND NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE A
QUICK END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
IT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THOUGH, WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC AT
SDF THAN AT BWG/LEX, BUT STILL WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF
DROP TO IFR. WINDS WILL STEADILY SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...RJS
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